How do you like these odds?

Look in the shallow water around your pier these days and you may see schools of hundreds of tiny fish – probably newly hatched bass, perch, bluegills or other species. If you were to imagine many more such schools around the lake’s perimeter, you might assume your lake would soon be chock full of fish for catching.

The reality is far different. The odds of survival for these fry are exceedingly long. One scientific study used DNA tracking to estimate the success of spawning smallmouth bass on a lake in Ontario. To make a long story short, the study found that only 27.7 percent of male bass that acquired eggs (it’s the male who guards the young after the eggs hatch) had at least one offspring survive to the fall young-of-the-year stage. Just 5.4 percent of all the spawning males produced 54.7 percent of the total number of the fall young-of-the-year, which range in size from 1 1/4 to 3 inches.

To look at it another way, consider that female smallmouth bass deposit anywhere from 2,000 to 10,000 eggs on a spring spawning bed. Even under the best conditions, most eggs don’t survive. They’re vulnerable to changes water temperature and oxygen levels, flooding or sedimentation, disease and predation (as from panfish and crayfish).

When the eggs hatch, the larval fish live off a yolk sac attached to their bodies. Once the yolk is fully absorbed, the fry, about an inch long, rise from the bed and start eating on their own. For a time the male bass protects the school, but eventually he leaves and the fry scatter. They survive on tiny crustaceans until they are big enough to eat aquatic insects, then larger crustaceans and fry of other fish species that spawned later. As the fish grow, they face the same threats as the eggs – in addition to which all manner of predators feast on them.

When they’re small, they get attacked by bluegills, perch, pumpkinseeds and sunfish. As they grow, they become prey for walleyes, northern pike and muskies. Other enemies, again depending on the fishes’ size, include kingfishers, loons and herons, mink, frogs, and some snakes. The end result is that only a tiny fraction of the eggs laid in a spawning bed, and only a tiny fraction of the fry you may see near your pier, ever become adult bass. Yes, nature can be a cruel mother. I am certainly glad the odds of survival for our grandsons, Tucker and Perrin, are considerably better than for a newly hatched smallmouth bass.